Bitcoin Treasury Firms Hit Survival Mode as Premiums Collapse

Bitcoin treasury firms face a "Darwinian phase" as equity premiums collapse, leverage turns into a liability, and stocks trade below Bitcoin NAV. Firms now focus on liquidity management amid deep losses and uncertain recovery paths.

Bitcoin treasury firms are experiencing a critical shift as equity premiums collapse and the core mechanics of their business models break down, according to Galaxy Research. The digital asset treasury (DAT) trade, which relied on stocks trading above Bitcoin net asset value (NAV) to fund further accumulation, has reached its limit. As Bitcoin prices fell from October highs near $126,000 to lows around $80,000-$92,000, risk appetite diminished and liquidity dried up, leading to a major deleveraging event. This reversed the previous growth loop, turning leverage into a liability and causing stocks to trade at discounts to NAV. Companies such as Metaplanet and Nakamoto, which once posted large unrealized gains, now face significant losses, with some stocks plunging over 98% from their peaks. Issuance of new shares is no longer accretive, and the sector faces compressed premiums, balance-sheet stress, and a focus on liquidity management. Galaxy outlines three possible paths forward: a period of compressed premiums, consolidation or restructuring, or recovery if Bitcoin reaches new highs for firms that preserved liquidity.