TD Cowen Slashes Strategy Price Target to $440 Amid Bitcoin Moves

TD Cowen cut Strategy's price target to $440, citing share dilution and lower Bitcoin yield, but maintains a positive outlook due to aggressive Bitcoin accumulation and expectations of rising Bitcoin prices.

TD Cowen has lowered its 12-month price target for Strategy from $500 to $440, citing share dilution and reduced Bitcoin yield as primary reasons. The company is aggressively acquiring Bitcoin, aiming for 155,000 BTC in 2026, funded by issuing more common and preferred stock. This increases the number of shares, diluting the Bitcoin yield per share, which analysts now estimate will drop to 7.1% in 2026 from a previous 8.8%. Despite the lower yield, Strategy remains attractive for investors seeking Bitcoin exposure, especially as it continues to buy during price dips. The company recently raised $1.25 billion to purchase more Bitcoin. Analysts expect Bitcoin prices to rise, potentially reaching $226,000 by December 2027, which could improve yields. Broader market trends, such as increased institutional participation and the growth of regulated spot ETFs, are seen as positives, though risks and volatility remain. MSCI's decision to keep Bitcoin treasury companies in its indexes is also viewed favorably for Strategy.