Morgan Stanley cuts Coinbase target on weak outlook
6.6 Investments Morgan Stanley downgraded Coinbase to Underweight and cut its price target to $120, citing weak trading, soft revenue, and sector concerns after the Binance hack.
Morgan Stanley has downgraded Coinbase Global (COIN) from Equal Weight to Underweight and sharply reduced its price target from $258 to $120. The downgrade comes amid weak trading trends and a softer revenue outlook for the crypto exchange. The bank noted that Coinbase’s Q3 revenue of $1.22 billion was 6% below forecasts, and Q4 transaction revenue is expected to be about 50% lower than previous estimates. Morgan Stanley also cited the recent $6.3 billion Binance security breach as a factor that could erode confidence in centralized crypto platforms and prompt increased regulatory scrutiny, even though Coinbase was not directly affected. The bank cut its 2027 and 2028 revenue forecasts by 28% and 18%, respectively, and lowered adjusted EBITDA estimates by 47% and 25%. The revised 2028 adjusted EBITDA forecast of $2.4 billion is 14% below 2025 levels, signaling a less robust recovery. Despite efforts to diversify, retail spot trading remains a key part of Coinbase’s business.
