February 2026 CPI: Inflation steady, Fed holds rates

February 2026 CPI data shows steady inflation at 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, as recent oil price spikes are not yet reflected.

February 2026 U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates a 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annual increase, closely mirroring January’s results. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise between 0.2% and 0.4% monthly and 2.5% to 3.5% annually, depending on the source. This report was released prior to the escalation of the Iran conflict and does not account for the recent surge in oil prices. Declines in used vehicle and grocery prices are expected to help offset inflationary pressures in other sectors. Market reactions were muted, with equities slightly down and Treasury yields ticking higher. Analysts widely anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate range of 3.50%–3.75%, with little expectation of near-term cuts. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices could impact future policy decisions. Overall, inflation pressures remain stable, and the Fed is likely to continue its cautious approach.