BIS study finds sixfold gap in Bitcoin transfer estimates

4.1 Tech

Sep 16, 2026

BIS finds Bitcoin onchain transfer estimates can vary sixfold due to transaction structure and methodology, highlighting the challenges of accurately measuring crypto activity.

A series of studies by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reveal that estimates of Bitcoin’s onchain transfer values can differ by as much as sixfold, depending on the measurement methodology used. This significant discrepancy stems from Bitcoin’s transaction structure, specifically its UTXO model, which produces change outputs that are often indistinguishable from genuine payments to third parties. Some measurement methods mistakenly count these change outputs as additional transfers, leading to inflated reports of onchain activity. The BIS researchers note that metrics such as transaction volumes, market capitalization, and total value locked often imply a level of precision that the underlying blockchain data does not support. The studies emphasize that onchain data should be viewed as an approximate indicator of economic activity, not a precise measurement. They stress that understanding the methodology behind onchain metrics is as important as the numbers themselves, highlighting the challenges of using raw blockchain data to accurately assess economic activity in the crypto ecosystem.