CFTC moves to regulate event contracts, exclude gambling

6.6 Regulation

Sep 30, 2026

The CFTC seeks to regulate event contracts as swaps and exclude casino-style gambling products, intensifying federal oversight and challenging state claims over prediction markets.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has submitted two regulatory proposals to the White House Office of Management and Budget’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. The first proposal aims to explicitly include event contracts—such as those traded on prediction markets—within the definition of “swap,” bringing them under federal oversight. The second proposal introduces an interim final rule to exclude casino-style gambling products from the swap definition, creating a clear distinction between derivatives and traditional gambling. These regulatory moves come amid ongoing legal disputes between federal and state authorities over whether event contracts should be regulated as swaps or as gambling products. While the proposals do not provide detailed rule text and are not marked as economically significant, the CFTC’s actions signal increased scrutiny of digital trading platforms and a push to clarify federal jurisdiction over prediction markets, challenging several states’ claims that such contracts are a form of gambling.