CLARITY Act passage odds drop to 50% amid Senate delays

Galaxy Research cut the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage odds to 50% due to Senate scheduling issues, unresolved policy matters, and no scheduled floor debate, raising the risk of further delays.

Galaxy Research has revised its estimate for the CLARITY Act’s passage in 2026, lowering the probability from 60% to 50%. This change stems from increasing scheduling challenges in the U.S. Senate, rather than any amendments to the bill itself. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify regulatory authority over crypto-assets between the SEC and CFTC. Although it passed the Senate Banking Committee with a 15-9 vote on May 14, it remains stalled on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423. No floor debate or motion to proceed has been scheduled, and key policy issues—such as ethics provisions and developer protections—are still unresolved. With the Senate’s legislative calendar tightening ahead of the August recess and competing legislative priorities, available floor time is shrinking. If a clear timetable is not set by early July, the bill’s passage could be delayed until after September, especially as midterm elections approach and make controversial legislation harder to advance.