VanEck Sees Risk-On Q1 2026, Cautious on Bitcoin's Short-Term

VanEck forecasts a risk-on Q1 2026 due to fiscal and monetary clarity, favoring digital assets, AI, and gold. While long-term bullish on crypto, the firm is cautious on Bitcoin's short-term outlook.

VanEck anticipates a risk-on environment for Q1 2026, driven by improved fiscal and monetary policy clarity, with shrinking US deficits and stable interest rates supporting investor confidence. The firm highlights digital assets, AI, private credit, gold, and India as sectors offering renewed investment opportunities after recent market corrections. While VanEck maintains a long-term bullish outlook on cryptocurrencies, it expresses caution for the next three to six months, noting that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle was disrupted in 2025, complicating short-term forecasts. Internal discussions at VanEck reveal differing views on Bitcoin's immediate prospects, but the overall stance is that increased policy transparency and reduced uncertainty favor risk assets. The report also notes that Bitcoin has decoupled from stocks and gold, with oversold indicators suggesting potential for recovery. Upcoming US midterm elections and the current macro environment are expected to further support risk assets, including crypto, in early 2026.