Willy Woo: Bitcoin may shift to 6–8 year cycle

Willy Woo suggests Bitcoin may shift from its four-year halving cycle to a 6–8 year cycle, as supply shocks fade and macroeconomic factors and institutional flows gain influence.

Analyst Willy Woo suggests that Bitcoin may be moving away from its traditional four-year cycle, historically driven by halving events that reduce new supply and trigger predictable price shocks. With Bitcoin’s annual new supply now around 0.8%—and expected to fall to 0.4% after the 2028 halving—Woo argues that the impact of these supply shocks is diminishing over time. He proposes that Bitcoin could begin following a longer 6–8 year cycle, more in line with debt and liquidity cycles seen in traditional financial markets. This would mark a significant shift in how Bitcoin’s price movements are influenced. As a result, macroeconomic factors and institutional investment vehicles, such as ETFs, may play a more prominent role in shaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics, rather than halving events alone. This perspective points to a potential change in how investors interpret Bitcoin’s future trends.