US midterms may spark Bitcoin and stock market rally

Binance Research finds US midterms often precede strong rallies in Bitcoin and stocks. The S&P 500 averages 19% and Bitcoin 54% gains post-election. The 2026 midterms may trigger similar recoveries.

Binance Research suggests that the 2026 US midterm elections could spark significant rallies in both Bitcoin and the stock markets. Historical data since 1939 reveals the S&P 500 has averaged a 19% gain in the year following midterm elections, with no negative annual returns during those periods. For Bitcoin, the three midterm cycles since it became widely traded have seen an average gain of 54% over the subsequent three years. The research also highlights that market volatility typically increases about eight months before Election Day, as investors adjust their expectations regarding fiscal policy, regulation, and government spending. While midterm years often begin with notable market pullbacks, these are frequently followed by strong recoveries. Despite current geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs, historical trends suggest the 2026 midterms could once again act as a positive catalyst for both Bitcoin and equities.