Polymarket odds surge for US government shutdown

Polymarket odds for a US government shutdown by January jumped to 77–78% amid political gridlock and stalled crypto regulation. The CLARITY Act remains delayed, raising concerns over government services.

Polymarket prediction markets have experienced a sharp rise in the odds of a US government shutdown before the end of January, with probabilities climbing to 77–78%. This marks a significant increase from just days earlier. The surge follows statements from Donald Trump and Chuck Schumer, intensifying political uncertainty and deadlock over federal funding, especially for the Department of Homeland Security. This impasse has also delayed progress on the CLARITY Act, a key crypto regulation bill. Previous delays were linked to the record 43-day shutdown in October and November. The rising odds reflect growing tensions in Congress and widespread concerns about the impact on government services and the regulatory landscape. Meanwhile, Polymarket users are also betting on other political outcomes, such as the likelihood of mass deportations if Trump returns to office. Currently, odds stand at 58% for 750,000 or more deportations in 2025.