5.1 Macro Polymarket数据显示，美国政府1月底前关门概率升至77%-78%，政治僵局和加密监管法案停滞，CLARITY Act受阻，服务中断担忧加剧。
Polymarket预测市场数据显示，美国政府在1月底前关门的概率大幅上升至77%-78%，较几天前显著增加。此次概率飙升主要受特朗普和舒默的最新表态影响，进一步加剧了联邦资金，尤其是国土安全部相关的政治不确定性和僵局。 这一僵局也导致重要加密监管法案CLARITY Act的推进受阻。此前，政府关门的延迟与10月和11月创纪录的43天关门事件有关。概率上升反映出国会紧张局势加剧，以及公众对政府服务中断和更广泛监管环境潜在影响的担忧。 此外，Polymarket用户还在押注其他政治结果。例如，如果特朗普再次执政，2025年大规模遣返（75万人或以上）的概率，目前赔率为58%。
Polymarket Odds Surge: 77% Chance of U.S. Government Shutdown Before January Ends
Polymarket Sees 78% Odds of US Shutdown as Crypto CLARITY Act Hangs in Limbo
Polymarket Bets Spike 77% as US Shutdown Fears Stall CLARITY Act Progress
Polymarket sees 78% odds of US shutdown as crypto CLARITY Act hangs in limbo
CLARITY Act in limbo as US government shutdown odds hit 78% over funding impasse
The probability of a US government shutdown on Polymarket has reached 77%.
Polymarket: Trump Deportation Bet Sees 58% Odds Favoring 750,000+ By 2025
US Government Shutdown Odds Surge to 77% on Polymarket
Polymarket sees January US gov’t shutdown odds surge to 77%
