Polymarket leads in political prediction markets
7 Markets Polymarket leads political prediction markets, posting $396M in weekly volume and outpacing Kalshi by 300–900%. Political contracts are 12% of activity. Revenue exceeds $1.8B.
Polymarket has reinforced its status as the top platform for political prediction markets, particularly during the recent US midterm elections. In early November, political prediction markets recorded trading volumes of $396 million, marking a 34.2% increase from the previous week and nearly tripling since early October. Polymarket captured the majority of this volume, consistently leading over Kalshi by margins of 300% to 900% across various political categories. Political contracts now account for about 12% of Polymarket’s total trading activity, making it the platform’s third-largest category. In contrast, political predictions represent only 1.5% of Kalshi’s volume, with sports dominating at 85.2%. Polymarket US primarily focuses on sports, with 95.4% of its volume, but the recent surge in political trading highlights diversification potential. The platform’s annualized revenue has surpassed $1.8 billion, up from $1 billion in June, following the launch of its US exchange. Daily notional volume on the US platform climbed from $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million by late June, underscoring Polymarket’s dominance and rapid revenue growth.
