Bolsonaro leads, Brazilian assets rally after first round

6.6 Markets

Oct 5, 2026

Bolsonaro led Brazil’s first round, sparking a rally in assets. Prediction markets outperformed polls. The runoff is set for October 25.

Flávio Bolsonaro secured about 47% of the votes in the first round of Brazil's presidential elections, surpassing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who received around 45%. Both candidates will now compete in a runoff scheduled for October 25. This unexpected result surprised financial markets and triggered a significant rally in Brazilian assets abroad. The MSCI Brazil ETF jumped over 14% in Frankfurt, while the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF reached its highest level since February 2020. Shares of companies such as XP Inc. and Nu Holdings posted record daily gains, fueled by investor optimism for a market-friendly economic agenda if Bolsonaro wins, especially with a conservative majority in Congress. Interestingly, prediction markets anticipated this outcome more accurately than traditional polls, reigniting discussions about their reliability. The political landscape remains uncertain, and the markets' final reaction will depend on economic signals and the runoff result.