Bitcoin bear market bottom predicted at $42K–$44K by late 2026

Jiang Zhuoer predicts Bitcoin’s bear-market bottom at $42,000–$44,000 between October and December 2026, based on Strategy’s mNAV and historical cycle models.

Jiang Zhuoer, a leading figure in Bitcoin mining, predicts that Bitcoin could reach its bear-market bottom between October and December 2026, with a target price range of $42,000 to $44,000. His forecast relies on the declining market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which has fallen to 0.72—close to the 0.7 level seen during the previous bear market in May 2022. Historically, the mNAV ratio tends to precede Bitcoin price bottoms by about six months. Jiang uses a four-year cycle model and a volatility decay method, suggesting that while the mNAV may be bottoming now, Bitcoin’s price could hit its lowest point later in the year. Jiang’s current strategy is to sell spot and short, with plans to switch to buying spot and going long after the expected bottom. He notes that current market sentiment, including events like STRC depegging, supports his view that the market is nearing a bottom zone.