JPMorgan predicts $266K Bitcoin, calls it better than gold

JPMorgan analysts say Bitcoin is now more attractive than gold for long-term investment, predicting it could reach $266,000 due to improved risk-adjusted returns and record-low volatility versus gold.

JPMorgan analysts have issued a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin, asserting it is now a more attractive investment than gold, despite recent sharp declines in the crypto market. Bitcoin has dropped nearly 50% from its peak above $126,000 and currently trades around $65,000, well below its estimated production cost of $87,000. This downturn is attributed to ETF outflows, reduced demand, and forced deleveraging in futures markets, leading to weak sentiment and continued selling pressure. In contrast, gold has surged over 60% in 2025, but its rally has been marked by increased volatility. Notably, JPMorgan highlights that Bitcoin’s volatility relative to gold has fallen to a record low, with the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio now at 1.5, indicating greater stability for Bitcoin. The bank suggests that, on a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise significantly—implying a price near $266,000—to match private sector investment in gold. JPMorgan believes that as negative sentiment fades, Bitcoin could rally toward this target, reinforcing its appeal as a long-term investment over gold.