Why the Capital Driving 2026's Biggest Returns Isn't Flowing Into Crypto

Bitcoin is trading at approximately $73,000, down 6% on the week and roughly 32% year-to-date. Ethereum has fallen below $2,000. Meanwhile, the MSCI All Country World Index reached an all-time high.

Brent crude posted its steepest monthly decline since March 2020, and the U.S. and Iran are about to end the conflict. Macro conditions that have historically supported risk asset rallies materialized this week. Unfortunately, digital asset markets did not respond in kind.
 

Bitcoin decouples from global risk appetite

The ETF-driven institutional bid that supported price appreciation through 2024 and into 2025 has materially weakened. Blockchain analytics firm Swissblock noted this week that spot ETF net accumulation has flattened to approximately 4,500 BTC year to date. 

BlackRock's IBIT recorded $528 million in single-day outflows, the second-largest daily redemption on record. Across the nine-day streak, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a combined $2.8 billion in net outflows.

CryptoQuant observed that although the supply held by long-term investors is at an all-time high, this doesn't mean they are actively accumulating more. Instead, it indicates less frequent trading in the market.

Many institutional investors point to regulation as the key factor influencing their actions. Legislation related to market structure, like the CLARITY Act, is still awaiting approval in Washington.

Where is capital going instead?

A significant portion of institutional risk appetite that might previously have moved into digital assets is currently directed elsewhere, into private AI companies, semiconductor infrastructure, and high-profile pre-IPO opportunities at historically elevated valuations.

Anthropic

Anthropic just raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, making it the most valuable private AI company in the world. The Series H funding was led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital.

Repeated large private raises at expanding valuations allow companies to defer public market scrutiny indefinitely while continuing to absorb institutional capital. 

The $900 billion post-money valuation implies revenue multiples that assume sustained, flawless execution in a highly competitive market against OpenAI, Google, Meta, and xAI at a time when the path to profitability remains multi-year.

SpaceX and OpenAI move toward public markets

SpaceX also filed its S-1 with the SEC on May 20, 2026, targeting a Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX on June 12. The deal, led by Goldman Sachs, is targeting a valuation in the range of $1.75 to $2 trillion and aims to raise up to $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in history. 
 

OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 with the SEC on May 22, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the process. The company is targeting a public listing as early as September 2026 at a valuation above $1 trillion. Its most recent private round closed in March 2026 at $852 billion, with annualized revenue running above $25 billion.

For institutional allocators, the pre-IPO private markets in these two companies have represented a rare opportunity for asymmetric upside at scale. 

The combined anticipated IPO proceeds from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could approach $200 billion, a figure that would exceed total U.S. IPO volume from 2022 through Q1 2026.

Memory chips and the semiconductor cycle

Less visible but equally significant is the performance of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and NAND flash suppliers. Micron Technology is up approximately 238% year-to-date in 2026, with its entire 2026 HBM output contracted to major hyperscalers. 

SanDisk, spun out from Western Digital in 2025, has posted gains of more than 500% over the past year. SK Hynix and Samsung are operating under similarly strained supply conditions.

The underlying driver is structural: AI data centers are estimated to consume 70% of available memory chip supply in 2026, and HBM capacity for the year is effectively sold out. Market research firm TrendForce projects a 134% increase in total memory revenue to $552 billion in 2026, with further growth anticipated into 2027. 

Unlike private AI valuations, demand for memory is tangible and contract-backed. Hyperscaler capital expenditure commitments are already on record. The effect on risk capital allocation is direct, as investors looking for quick returns have a solid and well-remembered earnings story that digital assets currently can't quite match.

Washington remains the limiting factor

The primary structural constraint on crypto capital inflows remains regulatory. The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 vote on May 14, advancing the most significant crypto market structure legislation in U.S. history to the full Senate. 

The clarity bill still requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, reconciliation with a parallel House bill, and a presidential signature. Even under an optimistic timeline, enforceable rules would not be in place until 2027.

Bitcoin ETF accumulation has flattened to 4,500 BTC net year-to-date, with May shifting into net distribution. Onchain velocity remains low. Institutional participants have consistently indicated that further capital deployment depends on regulatory resolution rather than on macroeconomic conditions. 

Our conclusions

The current environment reflects a rotation dynamic. 

Private AI and adjacent infrastructure represent a concentrated narrative with enormous TAM claims, visible revenue growth, and near-term IPO liquidity events that give institutional allocators a defined exit. 

Memory chips offer the same AI exposure with public market liquidity and documented earnings momentum. Pre-IPO secondary markets for SpaceX and OpenAI have provided another avenue for risk-on capital to find asymmetric positioning.

Bitcoin and crypto assets are waiting on a policy catalyst. The macro environment, including falling oil prices, ceasefire developments, and record global equities, has not produced the expected bid.

The passage of the CLARITY Act and the eventual public listing of major AI companies might redirect some of that capital back toward digital assets, or the AI infrastructure buildout will keep absorbing it till the music stops.

 

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This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risks. It is essential to conduct your own research before engaging with any equity or cryptocurrency.